Strategy as Tires: AsIfs should be long done before you act. WIFs should be done before and after you act. WIFs are not based on assumptions. .
6:24 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Please check your data dictionary when constructing your today’s actions with data that might not show up until tomorrow. That variable might be a lagging indicator. Don’t justify today’s actions with data that won’t show up until tomorrow.
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7:53 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: I know I was on a tear to get a system for displaying theories in the sense of synthetic data, but there is much we cannot see just like back when we used datasets, rather than data. .
7:59 . . .
Strategy as Tires: What happens when the blind that was leading the blind finds out that they, the leaders, are blind? .
8:00 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Do we really want to find out? Or, was this hypothetical supposed to generate an anxiety attack? .
8:06 . .
Strategy as Tires: Probability masses have density. How would we discover those densities? When will tectonic plates show up? They already have?
Strategy as Tires: What’s with all the urgency? You didn’t have a strategy. You didn’t have tactics? No proactivity? No process? No budget? Was that because you were spending all your time dealing with the urgent? .
7:02 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: So the experiment didn’t prove what you wanted it to prove? Instead, it exposed quite a lot of parameters, and a lot of directions for further exploration. Negative results are very informative. .
7:05 . .
Strategy as Tires: You answered quite a few unanswered questions. .
7:10 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Now, go find the people that own those unanswered questions and ask them why they need your answers. Then, coauthor a paper with them to move the findings along. .
7:12 . .
Strategy as Tires: Find the next question. Ask the “Then, what?” .
7:13 . .
Strategy as Tires: Be a constraints worst nightmare. How will you bend it? How will you break it? How will you totally ignore it? .
7:36 .
Strategy as Tires: Were you expecting an exact answer?
Strategy as Tires: So you don’t need a strategy? Got some tactics? .
20:01 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Do your people have their own strategies and tactics? What do they do when they see you walking down the hall? .
20:04 . .
Strategy as Tires: Passive aggression is not a strategy. .
20:08 . . .
Strategy as Tires: How does culture eat strategy? How do you happen to hire staff that avoids strategy? Tactics? Processes? .
20:10 . .
Strategy as Tires: Well, what do think my strategy is? Why do you think that security is around? So this officer will take your badge and walk you to your car. .
20:15 . .
Strategy as Tires: We cut that one a little to thin. We don’t expect a new boss to run into the prior boss. .
20:19 . .
Strategy as Tires: It’s bad enough that the new boss will have to layoff everyone in the old boss’ non-strategic business unit.
Strategy as Tires: Have you engaged with an subject matter expert, aka a user, today? .
15:18 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: We are in the knowledge packaging business. We are not subject matter experts. We know our carrier technologies. We do not know the carrier content. Eventually we will, but on day one, we don’t. .
15:20 . .
Strategy as Tires: The explicit knowledge is in books. The implicit knowledge is in the homework. .
15:27 . . . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Competent users know the explicit knowledge. They got it from their professors and their text books. They got the implicit knowledge from their peers. “Hey, how do you solve this kind of problem?” There was a trick. Once they get the trick, they’ll remember it. They’ll do it. But, they don’t spread it. .
15:28 . . .
Strategy as Tires: They will answer a programmer’s questions by the book, aka forgetting the trick, that trick, the ones before it, and the ones after it. .
15:30 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: They will answer a programmer’s questions at the ameteur level. And, everyone wonders why all the software performs at the amateur level. .
15:35 . .
Strategy as Tires: Engage your subject matter experts deeply since you are going to become one over the next few years.
Strategy as Tires: When ego wins, relationships lose. .
14:37 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Tell me the story again, but bring it to life this time. Where is the emotion? Where is the fire? Whose fire? .
14:41 . .
Strategy as Tires: Every fire has an owner. Delegating a fire doesn’t get the fire put out. .
14:42 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Yes, our insurance company insists that all fires must be extinguished by the close of business each day. .
14:44 . .
Strategy as Tires: Fire in the microwave again? Will we have to staff our microwaves? .
14:46 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: No, not chefs. We need microwave fire and security officers. They have to identify non-microwavable cookware. And, they have to put fires out before the fire department shows up. .
14:47 .
Strategy as Tires: Our insurance company is fast to increase rates.
Strategy as Tires: How much infrastructure will we build to support that role? .
13:29 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: How much changes between the user and functional boss perspective? Between the user and the generalist boss perspective? Does your data sort out these three groups of people? .
13:41 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Do all the users in the same roles want the same things? Is there more than one theory underlying the same work? .
14:43 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Only one user disagrees with that theory? That user is aware of another theory. Ask them to write a literature review on that theory. We can do the math once we have that review and have done our own. .
14:41 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: That new theory turned up in a new tail. The user kept leaving the application after copying some data. When they came back they pasted. Good catch. .
14:41 . . .
Strategy as Tires: That user never imported or exported anything? We should be looking for that. At a minimum it is a training problem. .
14:51 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Importing or exporting might mean that we need some other data structures, or support for some infrastructure that we don’t support yet.
Strategy as Tires: Thanks for developing that process. Would you like to work on making that a managed process? Sure? Great. We’ve built a process and a functional unit that turns processes into managed processes. They will work with you. Have fun.
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12:12 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: The volume one standard deviation from the mean of a standard normal contains 68% of the probability mass. This is when regression to the mean happens. .
12:17 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: With a thick-tailed distribution that volume one standard deviation from the mean can contain between 75% and 90% of the probability mass. This is when regression to the tail happens. .
12:18 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: With a thick-tailed distribution that has achieved normality, the peaks are higher. The height of the peak of a standard normal is 0.4. The height of the peak of the thick-tailed distribution is more than 0.6. .
12:31 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: The shoulders of a thick-tailed distribution gets narrower. The probability mass goes up toward the peak, not just outward towards infinity. .
12:34 . . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: The peak of a normal for a small sample size containing normalized data can have a peak as high as that of a thick-tailed distribution. If the data was not normalized, the distribution would be skewed, and as a consequence, the peak would be much shorter. .
12:41 . . .
Strategy as Tires: The higher probability masses of thick-tailed distributions tells us that events will stay within one standard deviation of the mean. .
12:47 . . .
Strategy as Tires: The tails of thick-tailed distributions contain between 25% to 10% of the probability mass. .
12:50 .
Strategy as Tires: Antitrust problems begin at 74% of the probability mass.
Strategy as Tires: Staying focused on what you’ve gained, keeps you optimistic about the effort. .
19:25 . .
Strategy as Tires: You’ve gained today? Celebrate. .
19:27 . .
Strategy as Tires: You didn’t close a gap today? How can we help? .
19:28 . .
Strategy as Tires: Yes! Asking for help is the hardest thing any of us must do. .
19:31 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Yes, I’ve heard that. Adding people slows down progress. Going from I to we is hard. But, you work for a we. And, you are already a we. .
19:34 .
Strategy as Tires: So how can we help without turning this into a project?
Strategy as Tires: Building functionality for the early adopter means building that functionality for one person. You are not averaging or trading off. You are not building usage barriers. .
18:19 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Building functionality for users in the early adopter’s vertical market means building functionality for many people. You are averaging and trading off. You are building usage barriers. .
18:25 . . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Building functionality for a manager in the early adopter’s vertical means building functionality that the manager has already averaged and traded off. Usage barriers abound. That manager might have never been a user. You are writing fiction. .
18:41 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: Strategy as Tires: Building functionality for a user you found online means building functionality that is skewed and kurtotic even if it is perfect. Others will not see it as perfect. .
18:42 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Are the people you are sampling prospects or customers? Are they in the current phase or a future phase? .
18:45 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Are the people you are sampling inside the rotation of the short tail, or out on the long tail? .
18:48 .
Strategy as Tires: Will the users you coded this thing for still be in the sample when the code is delivered?
Strategy as Tires: Seth’s blog on 7/16/2020 on FOMO and KIMO talked about dividing one’s markets into different populations. He brings this up because the service he uses couldn’t serve the entire population. The segmentation was accidental, but shared. .
7:21 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: When you divide your population into two segments, market to those segments exclusively. Yes, do the whole messaging processes separately. One message for one. Another message for the other. .
7:32 . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: FOMO is the fear of missing out. KIMO is the knowing I missed out. They told Seth that he missed out. The vendor/provider did that. What a mess, an avoidable mess. Management will be looking for this. .
7:33 . .
Strategy as Tires: When management is looking, own it. Tell us about it, so we don’t have to find it. .
7:34 . . . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: I don’t know that users have FOMO or KIMO problems. We know that subsets skew. We know that those not large enough to be normal distributions have long tails. And, we know that we have to attend to the volume, the probability mass, under the rotated short tail. It’s easier not to go there. .
7:37 . . .
Strategy as Tires: Features create subsets, so we are fooling ourselves when we deny subsetting. Fix this. Do the math. Get it done. You have 30 days. .
7:44 . . . . . . .
Strategy as Tires: It used to be, errantly, that selling software was sin. That was one of those Web 1.0 lessons that originated with the failure to pay attention to what the TALC was telling us. Information must be free was a falsehood for those customers that were not involved in the carrier phases of the TALC. .
7:46 . .
Strategy as Tires: During Web 1.0, we were selling consumer goods to geeks. That didn’t go so well. .
7:49 . . . .
Strategy as Tires: These days, our industry apparently expects users to use an application with their credit card in hand, so they can pay for that next chunk of functionality, or be unhappy with their work. We will not go there.
Strategy As Tires 